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Introduction
The decision to make a strategic acquisition or divestiture is always a difficult one.  The desire to modify the scope of operations always must be measured against the operational implications, industry reactions, and price paid for the enterprise.

Situation
Our client came to us when they were looking for an opportunity to increase their sales reach. As a mid-sized player in the highly competitive avionics radar market, they sought opportunities to increase their market reach against substantially larger operators that had begun to integrate their solutions. While the acquisition appeared to be a good one at first view, outside assistance was needed to perform due diligence to evaluate whether the proposed deal was one worth making. The Shpigler Group was called upon to evaluate the market, quantify the potential impact of the deal, and make recommendations regarding the investment.

Complication
While the acquisition, if carried through, would allow for added sales opportunities, the asking price needed to be justified when matched against the projected benefit. Competitive response from larger competitors needed to be measured and evaluated in terms of potential impact to the proposed deal.

Research
To start the engagement, we conducted extensive research within the industry to develop a complete understanding of the potential impact of the deal. We interviewed hundreds of industry players, including suppliers, distributors, integrators, OEMs, and end user customers. Based on our market research campaign, we were able to make projections about the potential sales impact on an annualized basis of the proposed acquisition.

Analysis
Based on the sales projections analysis we developed from our research efforts, The Shpigler Group then developed a pro forma analysis of the economic impact of the proposed deal. We developed a view of how earnings and our client’s overall valuation would be impacted by the acquisition through detailed financial analysis.

Problem Solved
According to our initial financial review, the deal – at the proposed price point – appeared to offer significant positive value for our client. However, while the straightforward financial analysis we conducted was a start, we still needed to further evaluate the deal. Our research indicated that we could expect to see added sales could be generated to existing product lines as well by supporting more of end user needs. However, we also could see that the deal would threaten an important existing strategic partnership our client had, thus negating the overall value of the acquisition. Based on all of our research and analysis, we quantified all of the impacts of the deal.

Result

When taking into account all of the elements of the proposed acquisition at the proposed price, we found that the deal would add positive NPV to our client, but only mildly so and generated significant market risk. As a result, our client decided not to acquire the competing product line. Instead, it found that pursuing additional strategic partnerships with complementary product lines would better accomplish the original growth goals set forth. As a result, our client struck a deal 90 days later with another manufacturer and has seen a joint marketing campaign yield very impressive results.

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